Implied Volatility & Volatility Skew

Implied volatility reflects what the market expects future price swings to look like — and it's rarely flat across strike prices. The resulting "skew" reveals where the market is pricing in the most fear or complacency.

The Concept

The Market's Own Forecast of Future Movement

Implied volatility (IV) is the volatility level that, when plugged into an options pricing model, produces the option's actual current market price. Rather than measuring what a stock has already done (that's historical, or "realized," volatility), IV reflects what the options market currently expects future price swings to look like — it's a forward-looking, market-implied forecast, embedded directly in option prices.

If IV were the same for every strike price on the same expiration, plotting it would produce a flat line. In practice it almost never is — plotting IV across strikes typically produces a curve, commonly called the volatility skew (or "smile," when it curves up on both sides). For equity index options, the skew is usually downward-sloping: out-of-the-money puts (protection against a crash) trade at meaningfully higher implied volatility than out-of-the-money calls, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection.

The skew is genuinely informative: a steepening skew (puts getting relatively more expensive versus calls) signals rising demand for crash protection — often a sign of building fear, even before the underlying stock has moved much. A flattening skew can signal the opposite. Reading the skew is reading what the options market is actually worried about, not just what the headline "IV" number says.

⚖️ Illustrative Example: A Downward-Sloping Skew

Implied volatility across five strikes on a hypothetical index option, all same expiration, stock at $100 — a textbook downward skew shape.

StrikeTypeMoneynessImplied Volatility
$85Put15% OTM28%
$95Put5% OTM21%
$100BothAt the Money18%
$105Call5% OTM16%
$115Call15% OTM14%

The deep out-of-the-money put (15% below the current price) carries the highest implied volatility at 28% — nearly double the equivalent out-of-the-money call at 14%. That gap reflects the market pricing in persistent demand for downside crash protection, a pattern seen consistently in equity index options.

Watch For This

5 Things to Know About Implied Volatility

  1. IV is forward-looking, realized volatility is backward-looking — they measure different things and can diverge substantially.
  2. IV tends to spike around known events — earnings, Fed announcements — then drop sharply right after, a pattern called "volatility crush."
  3. Equity index skew is usually downward-sloping — persistent demand for crash protection makes downside puts relatively more expensive.
  4. A steepening skew often signals rising fear — even before the underlying stock has actually moved much.
  5. High IV doesn't mean a stock will definitely move a lot — it means the market is pricing in a wider range of outcomes as more likely, not guaranteeing any particular one.
Put It Into Practice

4 Things to Check Before Trading Around IV

📊 Compare IV to Its Own History

  • A given IV level only means something relative to where that same option's IV has traded recently.

💥 Watch for Volatility Crush

  • Buying options right before a known event risks IV collapsing afterward, even if the direction call was right.

📉 Read the Skew, Not Just One IV Number

  • The shape of IV across strikes carries information a single at-the-money IV figure doesn't.

🔗 Connect Back to Vega

  • A position's vega (previous lesson) tells you exactly how much a shift in IV will move its value.
🧮 Related lessons: The Greeks (previous) covers vega, the sensitivity measure this lesson's IV feeds directly into, and Income Strategies (next in this track) shows how sellers can be compensated for taking the other side of persistently elevated IV.
Worth knowing: this lesson explains implied volatility and skew using illustrative numbers and historical framing — it isn't personalized financial advice, and no reading or level described here is a recommendation to trade. Implied volatility is a market-derived estimate, not a guarantee of future price movement. Speak to a licensed advisor about what's appropriate for your situation.
Activity

Try It Yourself: Skew Reader

Enter implied volatility for an out-of-the-money put and an equivalent out-of-the-money call — see the skew gap and what it suggests, under a simple rule.

Put IV
Call IV
Skew Gap

Model (illustrative only): skew gap = put IV − call IV. A gap under 3 points is read as roughly flat; 3-8 points as a typical downward skew; over 8 points as a steep, fear-driven skew. Real skew analysis uses many more strikes and statistical rigor than this simplified two-point rule.

End of Lesson

Quick Check: 5 Questions

Answer all five, then hit "Check My Answers" to see how you did. Get one wrong? No problem — the explanation will show you exactly why.

0/5
Nice work — review any explanations below to lock it in.
1. What is implied volatility?
Implied volatility is a forward-looking, market-implied estimate embedded in the option's current price, not a backward-looking measure.
2. What shape does equity index volatility skew usually take?
Equity index skew is usually downward-sloping, reflecting persistent demand for downside crash protection via puts.
3. In the illustrative example, what did the wide gap between put and call IV suggest?
The 28% put IV versus 14% call IV reflects the market's ongoing willingness to pay up for downside protection.
4. What is "volatility crush"?
Volatility crush refers to implied volatility spiking ahead of an event, then dropping sharply once the uncertainty resolves.
5. Does high implied volatility guarantee a stock will move a lot?
High IV reflects a wider expected range of outcomes being priced in, not a certainty that the stock will actually move that much.
Downloads

Take This Lesson Offline

Print-friendly resources to revisit, practice, and dig deeper — no login required.

Next Up: Income Strategies

You now understand what drives an option's price beyond the stock itself. The next lesson shows how option sellers can be compensated in premium for taking the other side of that expectation.